When an organization is willing to sign a young player to a long term contract, you know they must have confidence in him. Five years at six million per is no small price tag for the Colorado Avalanche, but when that player is Matt Duchene, the deal is well worth the lofty number. Duchene, a native of Haliburton, Ontario, hasn't always instilled confidence in his teams' brass the way he did in 2013. At 5'11 and 200 pounds, Duchene is a powerful kid who got a little too into the numbers on the weights. In his injury shortened 2011/12 season Matt went back to the basics and had to relearn his body from a new perspective. By paying too much attention to the amount of weight being used instead of the quality of the exercise, Duchene fell out of touch with his body and his production took a hit. With only 14 goals and 28 points in 58 games, the 11/12 campaign was by far Duchene's worst. Now, as a 22 year old, the third overall selection from 2009 has hit new levels in his play. After training with superstar Sidney Crosby in the off season, Duchene connected for 17 goals and 43 points in a 47 game season, firmly taking over as the Avs' offensive leader. The young centre hustled at both ends of the ice and many nights provided the spark for his team to win. On a terrible Colorado squad, Duchene was lucky to escape with only a minus 12 rating and his defensive play has improved by leaps and bounds since his first season.
Talent Analysis-
Matt Duchene came into the league with a high level of promise and pedigree, and he hasn't disappointed. Duchene is a thoroughbred through and through, but his game revolves largely around skating. Matt is a north-south player with excellent speed and power in his stride. He utilizes his tremendous foot speed to explode off the wings and rush the net. Duchene gains momentum excellently with his foreword crossovers and has the ability to catch defenders flat footed and blow past. Matt is similar to Sidney Crosby in the way that both of them have extremely powerful lower bodies and are able to generate speed and power past opposing players. His unique core and leg strength allows him to protect and control the puck authoritatively. A natural centre, Duchene loves to control the play and his skill set suits that style perfectly. Often, the game ends up flowing through him and he revels in dictating the tempo of play. Quick hands and a hard, accurate wrist shot allow Matt to generate scoring chances in the offensive zone and his high level of creativity and hockey IQ allow him to execute in scoring situations. Duchene can create plays out of nothing and it comes naturally to him. Duchene has a dominant skill set and can take over games. The left handed shooter plays with all out effort every night, and his work ethic is one trait that stands out. Duchene has a determination to win and can't stand losing. He is a heart and soul player and a solid leader on a young Avalanche team. While not the most gifted defensive specialist, Duchene has greatly improved his all around game since he broke into the league and can never be faulted for not giving his all.
The Numbers-
Matt has a total PPG of 0.72, translating to an average of 25 goals and 59 points per full season in 14:23 minutes of ice time per game. His consistent shooting percentage averages out to 12.56%, which is very respectable. Duchene has generated 2.43 shots per game over four years, and coupled with his shooting percentage and 82 career goals Matt is a dangerous scorer. In his sophomore season Duchene produced 27 goals and 40 assists for 67 points in 80 games, his best totals to date. The lockout shortened 2012/13 season was his finest season so far, with a 0.91 PPG over 47 games. In a full year that equates to a 30 goal, 75 point season which firmly entrenches him in the top flight of first line centres in the NHL.
Career Potential-
Matt Duchene projects to be a dominating first line centre that controls the pace of the game and leads his team by example, which he has already begun to do. Matt is the best player the Avs have had since Joe Sakic, a comparison that isn't too far off. Year by year Duchene has the tools to be a 30 to 40 goal scorer and a point per game player or better. Surrounded with a growing amount of talent in a young Colorado organization, 90+ point seasons may be in the near future. On many teams Duchene would be your captain, but with Gabriel Landeskog already holding that mantle in Colorado, Duchene will have to settle for an A on his jersey.
Thank you so much for reading and don't forget to give me a follow on Twitter (@JohannesHockey) and let me know who comes next in this instalment! -J